Is Congress Returning Again in Manipur?

Major Channels like NDTV, India Today and local political analysts gives Exit Polls for Manipur Assembly Elections 2017 in favour of Congress Party. Even people are well aware Congress party will return in Manipur. 

Other Exit Polls give clear win for BJP.  But how far Exit polls prepared by Delhi media are relevant?  These media knows little about Manipur and  the situations of the state in the last 3-4 months!  

BJP Manipur does not have any leader to stand tall against  Shri Ibobi Singh. That is the reason BJP Manipur goes to poll without Chief Ministerial Candidate.

This doesn't mean BJP wave is not there in the State. BJP which was like a non entity in 2012 elections , with less than 2% vote shares in 2012 Manipur Assembly Elections will rise to 27-30% vote shares.

There is a saying for Politics of Northeast. When there is Rain in Delhi, politicians  in Northeast used Umbrellas here! When 2012 elections was held, UPA government was at the Centre. There was neither BJP nor Narendra Modi. 

Even there was no takers for BJP ticket in the last elections.  Congress have to wrestle for power with All India Trinamool Congress. Since Mamata Banerjee's party was powerful in the Centre.

If Arvind Kejriwal is at the Centre, Shri Okram Ibobi Singh have to find stiff competition from AAP in Manipur. Therefore, it was not Modi Wave, but people's desire to be part of ruling government at the Centre.

Why, then BJP is failed to translate people's desire into mandates?

Why BJP lost its chance to form BJP government in  Manipur? Why Congress will be coming to power, despite 15 years of anti incumbency in the State? Why visiting Union Ministers and Honb'le Prime Minister's speech could not satisfy the voters?

Manipur Elections 2017 was to be fought on regional issues and BJP have failed to touch the sentiments of the people of Manipur.

It was funny to listen to Honb'le Union HRD Minister, Shri Prakash Javedkar Political speech like "Let BJP comes to power, we will make every government schools passout 100%".  Does the HRD Minister survey how government schools performed in BJP ruled States.

Manipur voters are not foolish enough to believe  every political speech which are for vote banks purposes.

Visiting Union Ministers failed to give a strong message to people, instead says economic blockades will be lifted after elections only, signalling remote control for economic blockades is with them.

Airlifting of fuels (once or twice) as advertisement ahead of #ModiInManipur, turns out to be an eye soar to the the people. Why BJP playing cheap politics with the sentiments of people? Instead of taking stern action against economic blockades, BJP is indirectly supporting Economic Blockades.

Here's top 10 reasons gathered from voters across the State which goes poll recently. Will these points be a factor for the return of Congress in Manipur once again?

1) BJP failed to keep its promises of 100 days announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014.

2) At least 20-30 BJP leaders who have worked hard before  Shri Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister left the Party, dissatisfied with the state leadership policies.

3)  State BJP leaders could not able to translate the brand image of Prime Minister vision of sacrifice, honesty and transparent among people.

4) BJP Manipur follows opposite theory of BJP - "Nation First, Party Next and Self Last". Instead it was, "Self First, Party Next, Nation Last."

5)  Instead of giving perfect examples of good governance of Shri Narendra Modi, BJP Manipur keeps on comparing the misrule of Congress government. When people asked about State Integrity issues, BJP will counter, Congress is responsible. People knows what Congress is doing since last 60 years, But what people want from BJP is to do different from Congress.  Blame Game politics of BJP have annoyed people.

6) People in Manipur do not accept the fact that their politicians  are dominated by people from other States. Recent intrusion of Manipur politics by Shri Hemanta Kumar Biswas (NEDA convenor from Assam) is not in good taste. How could Manipur politics be played by a Politician from Assam who recently deflected from Congress?

7)  BJP Manipur is waiting for buying deflected Congress MLAs and Ministers. Instead of grooming their hardcore workers and leader who have sacrificed for the party were ignored and given preference to those MLAs and Ministers from Corrupt Congress. (Corrupt Congress is a term given by BJP only). But, happy to embrace those MLAs.

8) Not a single issue of Manipur were discussed or supported sincerely, be it fake encounter case, ILP issue or Economic blockades.

9) And most important issue is Indo-Naga Framework Agreement which was signed between BJP and NSCN (IM) on August 2015. Why this Pandora box was kept hidden by BJP? Double Standard politics played by BJP leaders.

10) BJP Manipur failed to take actions against Corrupt Congress leaders and could not translate its campaign motto "SAVE MANIPUR".   Not a single BJP leaders clearly define how to Save Manipur by BJP.

Lastly, it was not a fight between Congress and BJP, but it was surely a fight of old underdogs of BJP against new parachute candidates of BJP!

Kill the Act - Hill Areas Committee of 1972

HAC Act for Hills and AFSPA for Valley of Manipur. What a justice and equality by Indian law makers!

When any debate is raised on Manipur issue, hill brethren  used  Hill Areas Committee (HAC) Act  to link all their demands and blame every thing on Valley people using this HAC. Who invented this ACT, by the way?

Hill brethren have never worked for developing Manipur, But always ready to use HAC Act for every anti Manipur activities. They are ready to oppose every Bill passed by the Manipur Government using HAC Act. Why the 3 Bills to protect Manipur faced opposition from Hills. Because many of them feels insecure and thought that  HAC will be powerless!

In any protest, be it for student scholarships, job reservation, free food or any freebies, one act they recite in their mouth is HAC Act. It seems a god gifted boon.

Manipur hill covers approximately 90 percent of the total area of  Manipur. Habitable valley area is less than 2000 square kilometer. Why special appeasement policy for Hill Areas which covers 90 percent of the State? Is this discrimination to the valley people by Constitution of India?

Government of India fails to study the political history of newly occupied state and did a number of blunders  in the beginning. I would say, the problems of unrest and hill-valley divide is the doings of  our law makers.  

Kill the Act which Divide Hill and Valley - the HAC of 1972

After Independence,  law makers of the Country committed to safeguard the well-being and interest of the Hill Tribals by assimilating the provisions in the Fifth and Sixth scheduled of the constitution. Thus, the declaration of “Hill Areas” in Manipur is must dangerous than imposition of Armed Forces Special Power Act of 1958 in Manipur.

When the process for granting of State-hood to Manipur, the Government of India promulgated an Act of Parliament called Manipur (Hill Areas) District Council Act 1971 under section 4 of subsection 3 Vide Bill No. 76 of 26/12/1971 for safeguarding the Hill Areas and protection of Tribals in Manipur, this provide for creation of six ADC in Hill Areas of Manipur for ultimate conversion to full-fledged District. Question is why protection of Hill alone. Why not valley which is less than 10 percent of the total are of the State?

Hill Area of Manipur covers approx, 90 percent of the area of Manipur. After Independent, the Government of India committed to safeguard the well-being and interest of the Hill Tribals by assimilating the provisions in the Fifth and Sixth scheduled of the constitution, necessitated the declaration of “Hill Areas” in Manipur.

If the Government of India can passed Bill for safeguarding the Hill Areas and protection of Tribals, the same GOI must be ready to pass Bills for protection of Valley Areas and protection of Meetei which is also a Forest Tribe (as per the official record of the British Government of India).

Who planted this Time Bomb in 1971?  It was a Congress MP from Outer Manipur Parliamentary seat, Mr Paokai Haokip and Mr N. Tombi Singh, another Congress MP from Inner Manipur Parliamentary seat. The Prime Minister of that period was Madam Indira Gandhi. 

These two traitors of Manipur deliberately sidelined  the Geo-politics of the State?  Instead of HAC, there must be Valley Areas Committee  (VAC) Act to safeguard the Valley which need special protection to bring equality in the State.

I was  researching who were those traitors of Manipur Assembly. Unfortunately, during those year, from 17 October 1969 to 22 March 1972,  President Rule was imposed (for 2 years,157 days).  

Where on earth and in which Constitution of the world  such Special Protections and land Act for 90 percent of majority and  discrimination for the remaining 10 percent  minority  are found?

Unrest in Manipur and discrimination of  Meetei by the Hill people is the handiwork of the Hill Area Committee of 1972. The Manipur (Hill Areas) District Council Act 1971 was drafted by Shri D. G Bhave retired Chief Secretary of Manipur in 1971 and enacted by Parliament in 1972.  If I am not wrong, Mr D. G Bhave never consulted the people of Manipur while drafting this Bill. 

Dr V. V. Giri President of India promulgated the Manipur Legislative Assembly (Hill Areas Committee) Order, 1972. The First Schedule of the order describes the "Hill Areas" and the Second Schedule contains the list of the Schedule Matters (13 in number). 

Voice for a Separate Administration, Alternate Arrangements and Hill-Valley divide are fueled by HAC. So it is better, we mobilise to scrap this Anti-Valley Act of 1972 for equality and social justice. Vested Politicians are misusing HAC like a remote control to unrest the state for the last few decades. Time now to silence them!

Let us KILL the  HAC Act, the mother of every unrest now!

Dr Harsh Vardhan is the Most Popular Chief Minister of Delhi

Dr Harsh Vardhan is the most popular choice for the next chief minister of Delhi, as per latest and final report of Opinion poll "Race for Delhi Chief Minister" in Facebook.

I run a month long survey  in the Facebook called  "Race for Delhi Chief Minister". It reveals the phenomenal increase of Dr Harsh Vardhan popularity as the most popular Chief Minister has many reasons. Today, Dr Harsh Vardhan is leading the popularity chart with 65 percent while AAP's Arvind Kejriwal is trailing with 23 percent. Sheila Dikshit is at the last spot with 12 percent.

The survey was carried out between November 4 and November 30, 2013 with more than 5000 people engaged in the Survey. Parameters like good governance, past achievements and party manifesto. The content sharing is equally distributed for the respondent to share and gain information on three Chief Ministerial candidates.

At the start of the Survey of 6th November 2013, Dr Harsh Vardhan was getting 28 percent while AAP leader, Arvind Kejriwal was leading with 39  Reason for Arvind's popularity was mainly related to the late announcement of  the BJP Chief Minister Candidate. Opinion polls released by various media houses favored Arvind Kejriwal as the most popular Chief Minister of Delhi, surpassing ruling Congress Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and Vijay Goel of BJP getting less than 20 percent. Senior leaders of the BJP then announced Dr Harsh Vardhan as the BJP Chief Minister candidate. 

After Dr Harsh Vardhan was announced the  BJP Chief Minister  Candidate on October 23, the popularity of BJP to increase. BJP under the leadership of  Dr Harsh Vardhan is poised to win the elections in 36 of the 70 seats.

As social media campaign of Dr Harsh Vardhan started slowly for the first week of November, Dr Harsh Vardhan popularity chart increases. On November 24, Race for Delhi Chief Minister published its second phase of opinion poll. Dr.Harsh Vardhan gain momentum to become the undisputed Chief Minister of Delhi with 62 per cent supporting him as the Best Chief Minister Candidate, followed by Arvind Kejriwal with 27 percent and Sheila Dixit with 11 per cent votes only.

Several factors may be responsible for the sudden rise of Dr Harsh Vardhan. It may be Narendra Modi campaign in Dwarka on 22nd November and heavy campaign by the BJP. Lots of events happen in the last week of November which again is favoring Dr Harsh Vardhan as the most popular Chief Minister candidate in Delhi. The final opinion poll results on 30th November gives a clear signal that it is BJP under the leadership of Dr Harsh Vardhan which is coming to power.

65 percent of the respondents voted for Dr Harsh Vardhan. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal lost his vote share and comes down to 23 percent from 27 percent. Congress's Sheila Dikshit increased by 1 per cent from 11 percent to 12 percent. AAP candidate has lost ground due to a sting operation in the last week of November. The credibility of the party decreased due to this sting operation.

Dr Harsh Vardhan said that on the eve of every election, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit makes long promises to the people of the Delhi for securing their votes and after that she does not go before the people. The proof of this fact is that there are hundreds of Jhuggies behind the residence of Rahul Gandhi, 12-Tughlak Lane where the lights of development have not reached. On the other hand Smt. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Sheila Dikshit are continuously making promises to the people that they will turn Delhi into heaven.

Even though, “Headline Today” predicts that BJP is likely to seize power from Cong in Delhi Assembly Election, giving  the BJP 40 seats in the 70-member House, followed by 18 to the Congress and 10 to Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), fighting its maiden election.  However, it is likely Congress returns to power for the fourth consecutive terms. 

I am worried at the activities of AAP.  "BJP has to battle AAP in all seriousness as the newbie threatens to cut into BJP's margins.  This is not a triangular contest between Dr Harsh Vardhan, Sheila Dikshit and Arvind Kejriwal.  It is, in fact straight fight between Dr Harsh Vardhan and Sheila Dikshit alone.  Sheila Dikshit has 43 sitting MLA while Dr Harsh Vardhan has 23 sitting MLA now.

Opinion poll on Facebook predicts 65 percent favoring Dr Harsh Vardhan as Chief Minister of Delhi. However, in terms of getting number of seats, we see Sheila Dixit getting 34-37 seats, while Dr Harsh Vardhan has 29-34 seats and Arvind Kejriwal has 1-2 seats only. BSP and other parties are ahead of AAP with 2-3 seats in the coming Delhi Assembly Election. 

AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is having a strong online presence in this election, and most Opinion Poll predicts a success of Arvind Kejriwal, one should not forget most of the volunteers of AAP and Arvind Kejriwal were not Delhites. Students and youths from various cities of the Country is campaigning for AAP, which is not touching the ground reality. The impact is not seen in the contesting constituencies in Delhi.

AAP only cuts BJP votes and baring 2-3 Constituency, none of the AAP Candidate will cross 5000 votes. In this situation, Congress Sheila Dixit with 43 MLA's in her party has a positive chance of winning a clear majority, though she will have lesser seats as compared to the 2008 Election.

In India, we regarded two elections signified- Lok Sabha and State Assembly.  Every voter knows the difference between the Lok Sabha election and the State Assembly election. Even if the State is ruled by Congress, voters elected BJP or other parties. In the current Delhi election, Delhites has the option to vote for the party of their choice. The whole Nation is waiting for Narendra Modi to be the Prime Minister of India.  Narendra Modi will have his effect on the elections, but Dr. Harsh Vardhan’s  late entry in Campaigning  is likely to nullify it. Poll percentage of BJP is expected to increase marginally.

If only BJP knows it is a straight fight between Congress and BJP and change the game plan before 48 hours of Voting, Vote swing is supposed to happen. Voters need to understand the catch - 22 situations now to bring a change in Delhi!