Is Congress Returning Again in Manipur?

Major Channels like NDTV, India Today and local political analysts gives Exit Polls for Manipur Assembly Elections 2017 in favour of Congress Party. Even people are well aware Congress party will return in Manipur. 

Other Exit Polls give clear win for BJP.  But how far Exit polls prepared by Delhi media are relevant?  These media knows little about Manipur and  the situations of the state in the last 3-4 months!  

BJP Manipur does not have any leader to stand tall against  Shri Ibobi Singh. That is the reason BJP Manipur goes to poll without Chief Ministerial Candidate.

This doesn't mean BJP wave is not there in the State. BJP which was like a non entity in 2012 elections , with less than 2% vote shares in 2012 Manipur Assembly Elections will rise to 27-30% vote shares.

There is a saying for Politics of Northeast. When there is Rain in Delhi, politicians  in Northeast used Umbrellas here! When 2012 elections was held, UPA government was at the Centre. There was neither BJP nor Narendra Modi. 

Even there was no takers for BJP ticket in the last elections.  Congress have to wrestle for power with All India Trinamool Congress. Since Mamata Banerjee's party was powerful in the Centre.

If Arvind Kejriwal is at the Centre, Shri Okram Ibobi Singh have to find stiff competition from AAP in Manipur. Therefore, it was not Modi Wave, but people's desire to be part of ruling government at the Centre.

Why, then BJP is failed to translate people's desire into mandates?

Why BJP lost its chance to form BJP government in  Manipur? Why Congress will be coming to power, despite 15 years of anti incumbency in the State? Why visiting Union Ministers and Honb'le Prime Minister's speech could not satisfy the voters?

Manipur Elections 2017 was to be fought on regional issues and BJP have failed to touch the sentiments of the people of Manipur.

It was funny to listen to Honb'le Union HRD Minister, Shri Prakash Javedkar Political speech like "Let BJP comes to power, we will make every government schools passout 100%".  Does the HRD Minister survey how government schools performed in BJP ruled States.

Manipur voters are not foolish enough to believe  every political speech which are for vote banks purposes.

Visiting Union Ministers failed to give a strong message to people, instead says economic blockades will be lifted after elections only, signalling remote control for economic blockades is with them.

Airlifting of fuels (once or twice) as advertisement ahead of #ModiInManipur, turns out to be an eye soar to the the people. Why BJP playing cheap politics with the sentiments of people? Instead of taking stern action against economic blockades, BJP is indirectly supporting Economic Blockades.

Here's top 10 reasons gathered from voters across the State which goes poll recently. Will these points be a factor for the return of Congress in Manipur once again?

1) BJP failed to keep its promises of 100 days announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014.

2) At least 20-30 BJP leaders who have worked hard before  Shri Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister left the Party, dissatisfied with the state leadership policies.

3)  State BJP leaders could not able to translate the brand image of Prime Minister vision of sacrifice, honesty and transparent among people.

4) BJP Manipur follows opposite theory of BJP - "Nation First, Party Next and Self Last". Instead it was, "Self First, Party Next, Nation Last."

5)  Instead of giving perfect examples of good governance of Shri Narendra Modi, BJP Manipur keeps on comparing the misrule of Congress government. When people asked about State Integrity issues, BJP will counter, Congress is responsible. People knows what Congress is doing since last 60 years, But what people want from BJP is to do different from Congress.  Blame Game politics of BJP have annoyed people.

6) People in Manipur do not accept the fact that their politicians  are dominated by people from other States. Recent intrusion of Manipur politics by Shri Hemanta Kumar Biswas (NEDA convenor from Assam) is not in good taste. How could Manipur politics be played by a Politician from Assam who recently deflected from Congress?

7)  BJP Manipur is waiting for buying deflected Congress MLAs and Ministers. Instead of grooming their hardcore workers and leader who have sacrificed for the party were ignored and given preference to those MLAs and Ministers from Corrupt Congress. (Corrupt Congress is a term given by BJP only). But, happy to embrace those MLAs.

8) Not a single issue of Manipur were discussed or supported sincerely, be it fake encounter case, ILP issue or Economic blockades.

9) And most important issue is Indo-Naga Framework Agreement which was signed between BJP and NSCN (IM) on August 2015. Why this Pandora box was kept hidden by BJP? Double Standard politics played by BJP leaders.

10) BJP Manipur failed to take actions against Corrupt Congress leaders and could not translate its campaign motto "SAVE MANIPUR".   Not a single BJP leaders clearly define how to Save Manipur by BJP.

Lastly, it was not a fight between Congress and BJP, but it was surely a fight of old underdogs of BJP against new parachute candidates of BJP!

State Re-organisation to Solve Indo - Naga Issue

Why India mentioned Manipur in the Shillong Accord of 1976 as Supplementary Agreement, without consulting the Government of Manipur? The same thing is repeated now while signing the Indo-Naga Framework Agreement of 2015. And some fools in the United Naga Integration Council thought that state unit of Indian National Congress is the final authority to allow the integration of Naga tribes, paving way for a separate homeland in Manipur. 

If BJP Government at the Centre is happy and convinced to satisfy few tribes who called themselves as Naga in Manipur, then please work towards State Re-organisation in entire Northeast India. If India is ready for South Nagalim within Manipur and "shared sovereignty" in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Manipur, let us divide Northeast based on the ethnic communities.

Though, it is impossible for State Re-organisation in the ambit of Indian Constitution. If Centre believes they can play with the Constitution of India to appease few people, let us do state re-organisation!

The BJP Government in Assam should stop importing and exporting Bangladeshi Muslims or Hindus first. For Assam will have drastic impact with the appeasement policies of Centre. The BJP government at the Centre is seriously concerned about pleasing Th Muivah, NSCN (IM) leader from Manipur to be the torch bearer of ending decades long Indo-Naga conflicts.

Let those tribes residing in Arunchal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur make their own land. Likewise, Assamese living in the entire Northeast too formed a separate State. Let Kukis living in Manipur, Assam, Mizoram and Nagaland too formed a separate Kukiland.

Meetei must formed a separate land with those Meetei living in Nagaland, Assam Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram. The same rights be given to other communities too, if India believes that such proposal to integrate Nagas is acceptable for bringing peace in the entire region.

The question is how much sacrifices have been done by some tribes who called themselves Naga. How many villages in Manipur, Assam or Arunachal Pradesh are torched and innocent killed by Indian forces to suppress the Naga struggles for freedom from India? How many villages in the proposed South Nagalim revolted against the Indian forces like the Naga brothers are suffering for freedom from India? 

During the period from 1953 to 1955 it was reported that the activity of the Naga Movement resulted in lawlessness, violence and created a fear psychosis in the minds of people living in the Naga Hills. By 1955 over 10,000 Nagas had been beaten up and tortured, 1562 women were beaten up and assaulted, out of whom 709 girls were below 20 years of age. 515 granaries were destroyed or burned down,1811 men were maimed through torture, 482 houses had been looted by Indian soldiers; 60 houses belonging to Naga leaders were pulled down and many schools were occupied by the Indian armed forces; 46 villages, containing 10, 791 houses had been attacked as many as 223 times, and Rs 86, 517.60 was been imposed as "fines". 

Let us not linked Oinam incident in Manipur with the freedom struggle of Nagas. It was purely a different issue. On 9 July 1987 the Oinam village become quite a nightmare of terror and horror when the Assam Rifles Outpost near this village was raided in broad daylight by the NSCN. 

Indian general elections of 1952 and 1957 had been totally boycotted by the Naga brothers. But, the so called Tangkhul leaders were enjoying in Delhi as Member of Parliament, right from 1952 onward. And why no Tangkhuls or Maos or Zeliangrongs or Marams or any Naga tribe who claimed to settle in Manipur, signed the 1951 plebiscite? 

BJP leaders should study the facts and act accordingly. Entire communities in Northeast want to see Naga get their solutions, for they have suffered much! But India should not divide Manipur or any other States to satisfy fake Naga tribes who were waging war against its own people!

Lotus in winters of Manipur

Historic wins of BJP in Kakching Municipal By-election

The state BJP has a reason to smile now. BJP created history by winning Kakching Municipal by-election, defeating Congress candidate. Few months back, BJP in Manipur was humiliated for it could not win a single Lok Sabha seat, despite fielding two most qualified candidates. 

The party itself started blame games within the party for not converting MODI wave which swept entire Nation in the early months of 2014.  But this time, it silenced all; rather, it shocked the ruling Congress government.  The motto "New Hope, new Manipur" is helping BJP gaining popularity in the state.

By-election to Hiyanglam Assembly Constituency will be a game changer for BJP Manipur. The wise voter of this Constituency has strong faith in Shri Narendra Modi and they understand that BJP is the only hope for them. Several voters say Ibobi era has end. If they elect a Congress MLA, he has to go to Delhi and beg to BJP ministries. Then why shouldn't we vote for the BJP who can work with Modi and be a part of governance!

MODI waves which reached every corner of the Nation, from Ladakh to Andamans, from Kutch to Tawang have reached Manipur too. The Congress government is in power for the last 13 years, and 47 sitting Congress MLAs (5 of which defected to the Congress from MSCP). This have stand like a high wall for BJP in roads in the state.

Voting Percentage of Political Parties in the last General Election in Inner Manipur Parliamentary Constituency:

BJP got 14.42 percent votes share. This is 8% increased as from the last elections in 2009. This is clear sign of people accepting MODI in the tiny Northeastern states, surrounding by Mountains and hills, so high that no tsunami can reached from the bay of Bengal.

Though the party could not open an account in Manipur, preparations are going on to win every by-elections in Manipur before state Assembly elections in 2017.  State leaders led by Shri Th Choaba Singh, have never accepted the defeat. It is worth mentioning that since the defeat of BJP in Lok Sabha election, state leaders are focusing in the organization and mass enrolment of Karyakartas to fight Congress and bring BJP government in the State. 

Kaching Municipal by-election wins shocked the ruling Congress. Now, BJP is trying to win the Hiyanglam By-election which will goes to poll on October 17, 2014. BJP is confident to win few more seats in the by-elections which will be held in early months of 2015, due to the disqualification of some AITC MLAs. 

Now, National leaders and  Modi Ministries must initiated the process of bringing a lasting solutions to Naga-peace talks, final decision on tribal rights (6th Schedule), CBI inquiry of the infamous  Loktak Scams which allegedly involve the Congress Chief Minister,  controversy surroundings Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA, 1958) and border fencing controversies which were taken up during the UPA regime.   

Coupled with the development policies of Shri Narendra Modi ji and Union Budget which are more focused on Northeast states, development plan for the National Highways, railway projects and Sports Universities, BJP is confident of lotus blooming in winters of Manipur soon. We can see lotus blooms even in the hills of Manipur and Northeast region under the good governance of Shri Narendra Modi ji.

Proud moment of BJP Manipur, Smt S Premita Devi won the Kakching Municipal by-election, defeating Congress Candidate.

Dr Harsh Vardhan is the Most Popular Chief Minister of Delhi

Dr Harsh Vardhan is the most popular choice for the next chief minister of Delhi, as per latest and final report of Opinion poll "Race for Delhi Chief Minister" in Facebook.

I run a month long survey  in the Facebook called  "Race for Delhi Chief Minister". It reveals the phenomenal increase of Dr Harsh Vardhan popularity as the most popular Chief Minister has many reasons. Today, Dr Harsh Vardhan is leading the popularity chart with 65 percent while AAP's Arvind Kejriwal is trailing with 23 percent. Sheila Dikshit is at the last spot with 12 percent.

The survey was carried out between November 4 and November 30, 2013 with more than 5000 people engaged in the Survey. Parameters like good governance, past achievements and party manifesto. The content sharing is equally distributed for the respondent to share and gain information on three Chief Ministerial candidates.

At the start of the Survey of 6th November 2013, Dr Harsh Vardhan was getting 28 percent while AAP leader, Arvind Kejriwal was leading with 39  Reason for Arvind's popularity was mainly related to the late announcement of  the BJP Chief Minister Candidate. Opinion polls released by various media houses favored Arvind Kejriwal as the most popular Chief Minister of Delhi, surpassing ruling Congress Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and Vijay Goel of BJP getting less than 20 percent. Senior leaders of the BJP then announced Dr Harsh Vardhan as the BJP Chief Minister candidate. 

After Dr Harsh Vardhan was announced the  BJP Chief Minister  Candidate on October 23, the popularity of BJP to increase. BJP under the leadership of  Dr Harsh Vardhan is poised to win the elections in 36 of the 70 seats.

As social media campaign of Dr Harsh Vardhan started slowly for the first week of November, Dr Harsh Vardhan popularity chart increases. On November 24, Race for Delhi Chief Minister published its second phase of opinion poll. Dr.Harsh Vardhan gain momentum to become the undisputed Chief Minister of Delhi with 62 per cent supporting him as the Best Chief Minister Candidate, followed by Arvind Kejriwal with 27 percent and Sheila Dixit with 11 per cent votes only.

Several factors may be responsible for the sudden rise of Dr Harsh Vardhan. It may be Narendra Modi campaign in Dwarka on 22nd November and heavy campaign by the BJP. Lots of events happen in the last week of November which again is favoring Dr Harsh Vardhan as the most popular Chief Minister candidate in Delhi. The final opinion poll results on 30th November gives a clear signal that it is BJP under the leadership of Dr Harsh Vardhan which is coming to power.

65 percent of the respondents voted for Dr Harsh Vardhan. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal lost his vote share and comes down to 23 percent from 27 percent. Congress's Sheila Dikshit increased by 1 per cent from 11 percent to 12 percent. AAP candidate has lost ground due to a sting operation in the last week of November. The credibility of the party decreased due to this sting operation.

Dr Harsh Vardhan said that on the eve of every election, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit makes long promises to the people of the Delhi for securing their votes and after that she does not go before the people. The proof of this fact is that there are hundreds of Jhuggies behind the residence of Rahul Gandhi, 12-Tughlak Lane where the lights of development have not reached. On the other hand Smt. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Sheila Dikshit are continuously making promises to the people that they will turn Delhi into heaven.

Even though, “Headline Today” predicts that BJP is likely to seize power from Cong in Delhi Assembly Election, giving  the BJP 40 seats in the 70-member House, followed by 18 to the Congress and 10 to Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), fighting its maiden election.  However, it is likely Congress returns to power for the fourth consecutive terms. 

I am worried at the activities of AAP.  "BJP has to battle AAP in all seriousness as the newbie threatens to cut into BJP's margins.  This is not a triangular contest between Dr Harsh Vardhan, Sheila Dikshit and Arvind Kejriwal.  It is, in fact straight fight between Dr Harsh Vardhan and Sheila Dikshit alone.  Sheila Dikshit has 43 sitting MLA while Dr Harsh Vardhan has 23 sitting MLA now.

Opinion poll on Facebook predicts 65 percent favoring Dr Harsh Vardhan as Chief Minister of Delhi. However, in terms of getting number of seats, we see Sheila Dixit getting 34-37 seats, while Dr Harsh Vardhan has 29-34 seats and Arvind Kejriwal has 1-2 seats only. BSP and other parties are ahead of AAP with 2-3 seats in the coming Delhi Assembly Election. 

AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is having a strong online presence in this election, and most Opinion Poll predicts a success of Arvind Kejriwal, one should not forget most of the volunteers of AAP and Arvind Kejriwal were not Delhites. Students and youths from various cities of the Country is campaigning for AAP, which is not touching the ground reality. The impact is not seen in the contesting constituencies in Delhi.

AAP only cuts BJP votes and baring 2-3 Constituency, none of the AAP Candidate will cross 5000 votes. In this situation, Congress Sheila Dixit with 43 MLA's in her party has a positive chance of winning a clear majority, though she will have lesser seats as compared to the 2008 Election.

In India, we regarded two elections signified- Lok Sabha and State Assembly.  Every voter knows the difference between the Lok Sabha election and the State Assembly election. Even if the State is ruled by Congress, voters elected BJP or other parties. In the current Delhi election, Delhites has the option to vote for the party of their choice. The whole Nation is waiting for Narendra Modi to be the Prime Minister of India.  Narendra Modi will have his effect on the elections, but Dr. Harsh Vardhan’s  late entry in Campaigning  is likely to nullify it. Poll percentage of BJP is expected to increase marginally.

If only BJP knows it is a straight fight between Congress and BJP and change the game plan before 48 hours of Voting, Vote swing is supposed to happen. Voters need to understand the catch - 22 situations now to bring a change in Delhi!