Dr Harsh Vardhan is the most popular choice for the next chief minister of Delhi, as per latest and final report of Opinion poll "Race for Delhi Chief Minister" in Facebook.
I run a month long survey in the Facebook called "Race for Delhi Chief Minister". It reveals the phenomenal increase of Dr Harsh Vardhan popularity as the most popular Chief Minister has many reasons. Today, Dr Harsh Vardhan is leading the popularity chart with 65 percent while AAP's Arvind Kejriwal is trailing with 23 percent. Sheila Dikshit is at the last spot with 12 percent.
The survey was carried out between November 4 and November 30, 2013 with more than 5000 people engaged in the Survey. Parameters like good governance, past achievements and party manifesto. The content sharing is equally distributed for the respondent to share and gain information on three Chief Ministerial candidates.
At the start of the Survey of 6th November 2013, Dr Harsh Vardhan was getting 28 percent while AAP leader, Arvind Kejriwal was leading with 39 Reason for Arvind's popularity was mainly related to the late announcement of the BJP Chief Minister Candidate. Opinion polls released by various media houses favored Arvind Kejriwal as the most popular Chief Minister of Delhi, surpassing ruling Congress Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and Vijay Goel of BJP getting less than 20 percent. Senior leaders of the BJP then announced Dr Harsh Vardhan as the BJP Chief Minister candidate.
After Dr Harsh Vardhan was announced the BJP Chief Minister Candidate on October 23, the popularity of BJP to increase. BJP under the leadership of Dr Harsh Vardhan is poised to win the elections in 36 of the 70 seats.
As social media campaign of Dr Harsh Vardhan started slowly for the first week of November, Dr Harsh Vardhan popularity chart increases. On November 24, Race for Delhi Chief Minister published its second phase of opinion poll. Dr.Harsh Vardhan gain momentum to become the undisputed Chief Minister of Delhi with 62 per cent supporting him as the Best Chief Minister Candidate, followed by Arvind Kejriwal with 27 percent and Sheila Dixit with 11 per cent votes only.
Several factors may be responsible for the sudden rise of Dr Harsh Vardhan. It may be Narendra Modi campaign in Dwarka on 22nd November and heavy campaign by the BJP. Lots of events happen in the last week of November which again is favoring Dr Harsh Vardhan as the most popular Chief Minister candidate in Delhi. The final opinion poll results on 30th November gives a clear signal that it is BJP under the leadership of Dr Harsh Vardhan which is coming to power.
65 percent of the respondents voted for Dr Harsh Vardhan. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal lost his vote share and comes down to 23 percent from 27 percent. Congress's Sheila Dikshit increased by 1 per cent from 11 percent to 12 percent. AAP candidate has lost ground due to a sting operation in the last week of November. The credibility of the party decreased due to this sting operation.
Dr Harsh Vardhan said that on the eve of every election, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit makes long promises to the people of the Delhi for securing their votes and after that she does not go before the people. The proof of this fact is that there are hundreds of Jhuggies behind the residence of Rahul Gandhi, 12-Tughlak Lane where the lights of development have not reached. On the other hand Smt. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Sheila Dikshit are continuously making promises to the people that they will turn Delhi into heaven.
Even though, “Headline Today” predicts that BJP is likely to seize power from Cong in Delhi Assembly Election, giving the BJP 40 seats in the 70-member House, followed by 18 to the Congress and 10 to Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), fighting its maiden election. However, it is likely Congress returns to power for the fourth consecutive terms.
I am worried at the activities of AAP. "BJP has to battle AAP in all seriousness as the newbie threatens to cut into BJP's margins. This is not a triangular contest between Dr Harsh Vardhan, Sheila Dikshit and Arvind Kejriwal. It is, in fact straight fight between Dr Harsh Vardhan and Sheila Dikshit alone. Sheila Dikshit has 43 sitting MLA while Dr Harsh Vardhan has 23 sitting MLA now.
Opinion poll on Facebook predicts 65 percent favoring Dr Harsh Vardhan as Chief Minister of Delhi. However, in terms of getting number of seats, we see Sheila Dixit getting 34-37 seats, while Dr Harsh Vardhan has 29-34 seats and Arvind Kejriwal has 1-2 seats only. BSP and other parties are ahead of AAP with 2-3 seats in the coming Delhi Assembly Election.
AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is having a strong online presence in this election, and most Opinion Poll predicts a success of Arvind Kejriwal, one should not forget most of the volunteers of AAP and Arvind Kejriwal were not Delhites. Students and youths from various cities of the Country is campaigning for AAP, which is not touching the ground reality. The impact is not seen in the contesting constituencies in Delhi.
AAP only cuts BJP votes and baring 2-3 Constituency, none of the AAP Candidate will cross 5000 votes. In this situation, Congress Sheila Dixit with 43 MLA's in her party has a positive chance of winning a clear majority, though she will have lesser seats as compared to the 2008 Election.
In India, we regarded two elections signified- Lok Sabha and State Assembly. Every voter knows the difference between the Lok Sabha election and the State Assembly election. Even if the State is ruled by Congress, voters elected BJP or other parties. In the current Delhi election, Delhites has the option to vote for the party of their choice. The whole Nation is waiting for Narendra Modi to be the Prime Minister of India. Narendra Modi will have his effect on the elections, but Dr. Harsh Vardhan’s late entry in Campaigning is likely to nullify it. Poll percentage of BJP is expected to increase marginally.
If only BJP knows it is a straight fight between Congress and BJP and change the game plan before 48 hours of Voting, Vote swing is supposed to happen. Voters need to understand the catch - 22 situations now to bring a change in Delhi!
